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Will Trump’s front-runnership last in the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?

Xiaodong Fang
4 min readMay 16, 2023

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According to recent polls from the RealClearPolitics website, which provides up-to-date information on the 2024 Republican presidential nomination race, former President Donald Trump is leading the 2024 Republican presidential nomination race with 52% of the vote, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis with 22.9%.

Photo from RealClearPolitics.com

Other candidates, such as former Vice President Mike Pence and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, are polling at lower percentages.

While the candidate who leads in Republican presidential election polls in the year before the election may have an advantage, it is not a guarantee that they will ultimately win the party nomination.

The front-runnership is changing

There have been instances in the past where a candidate who was leading in the polls did not win the nomination. For example, in the 2008 Republican presidential primaries, John McCain was not leading in the polls a year before the election, but he ultimately won the nomination.

Photo from RealClearPolitics.com

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Xiaodong Fang
Xiaodong Fang

Written by Xiaodong Fang

Political Scientist studied and worked at #Georgetown #IowaState #JamesMadison | Observing #Elections and #China

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