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Iowa Caucuses Winner Usually Won’t Become the Nominee: A Prelude, Not a Guarantee

Xiaodong Fang
4 min readDec 19, 2023

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The Iowa caucuses have long been regarded as the inaugural battleground in the race for the U.S. presidential nomination. However, contrary to what some may believe, emerging victorious in Iowa does not ensure an unobstructed path to becoming the final nominee.

Photo by Clay Banks on Unsplash

The significance of the Iowa caucuses lies in their role as the starting point of the complex and multifaceted nominating process. Candidates invest significant time, resources, and energy into this Midwestern state, hoping to garner early momentum and establish themselves as serious contenders.

What does recent history tell?

Here is a list of Republican winners in recent contested Iowa caucuses for presidential nominations.

2016 — Ted Cruz

2012 — Rick Santorum

2008 — Mike Huckabee

None of the Iowa winners had clinched the nomination in the Republican national convention.

Photo by Kelly Sikkema on Unsplash

Democratic Party has a similar pattern. Here are the Democratic winners in contested Iowa caucuses for presidential nominations since…

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Xiaodong Fang
Xiaodong Fang

Written by Xiaodong Fang

Political Scientist studied and worked at #Georgetown #IowaState #JamesMadison | Observing #Elections and #China

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